Race 5A

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Sam Alexander 8.6% 9.4% 10.6% 8.2% 9.1% 9.3% 8.9% 7.5% 8.3% 6.1% 7.3% 5.0% 1.3% 0.4%
Dakota Northrup 13.4% 11.9% 11.3% 11.1% 10.7% 8.4% 9.3% 8.5% 5.6% 3.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Jack McGraw 11.6% 9.9% 9.6% 10.3% 9.2% 9.9% 8.0% 7.4% 8.1% 6.6% 5.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Josh Dochoda 8.1% 10.5% 11.4% 9.4% 9.2% 8.9% 9.0% 7.7% 8.6% 6.7% 5.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Cameron Holley 11.9% 13.6% 11.5% 13.6% 9.2% 8.3% 8.1% 8.2% 7.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Walter Florio 8.3% 7.1% 8.5% 9.6% 8.7% 7.6% 9.7% 9.0% 6.6% 8.5% 6.8% 6.1% 3.0% 0.5%
Alexander Vasiliou 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% 6.1% 7.9% 6.7% 9.5% 9.3% 8.0% 9.3% 9.3% 8.3% 3.7% 0.5%
James Peraire-Bueno 4.0% 3.3% 3.5% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 5.7% 5.4% 6.8% 9.4% 11.9% 16.1% 15.0% 4.7%
Jackson Hamilton 7.3% 7.1% 6.5% 6.1% 9.2% 8.6% 8.9% 8.1% 11.2% 9.2% 8.4% 5.6% 2.6% 1.2%
Frank Reeg 5.3% 4.2% 4.8% 6.5% 5.4% 7.9% 6.4% 9.2% 7.1% 11.0% 12.5% 11.7% 6.2% 1.8%
Noah Brayer 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 2.2% 4.4% 4.6% 9.9% 27.7% 42.2%
Colin Richards 3.8% 4.2% 4.0% 5.4% 5.3% 6.2% 6.1% 7.0% 10.4% 10.7% 11.0% 12.4% 10.9% 2.6%
Amy Macdonald 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.7% 5.6% 9.9% 25.0% 44.8%
Nick Digiovanni 8.9% 9.4% 8.9% 7.0% 9.7% 10.6% 7.9% 8.9% 8.1% 7.8% 6.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.