Race 1B

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jackson McCoy 21.4% 15.9% 16.4% 11.8% 10.4% 6.7% 6.2% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Rachel Foster 9.6% 9.4% 8.6% 9.7% 9.3% 9.3% 10.4% 8.9% 7.7% 7.1% 4.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.1%
Kyle Dochoda 11.4% 12.8% 10.9% 10.1% 10.3% 10.7% 9.0% 7.9% 5.9% 6.1% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Emilia Clementi 4.5% 7.8% 6.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.2% 8.5% 11.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.1% 6.1% 4.4% 0.6%
Chris Colbeth 2.6% 3.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.3% 5.1% 7.0% 6.8% 8.4% 10.8% 11.5% 13.7% 13.0% 2.7%
Alexander Bowen 6.4% 6.1% 7.4% 7.8% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 9.4% 8.1% 8.7% 7.7% 6.7% 2.9% 0.3%
Dylan Farrell 9.7% 11.0% 9.7% 10.7% 9.3% 9.8% 9.3% 9.5% 7.5% 4.4% 5.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Joseph Chamberlin 4.2% 3.7% 5.1% 4.9% 5.8% 4.4% 6.8% 7.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.2% 12.9% 12.0% 2.6%
Alden Grimes 15.2% 15.5% 13.5% 12.7% 12.0% 8.8% 7.7% 5.5% 4.1% 2.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Girard 5.0% 5.3% 4.6% 7.3% 5.9% 9.1% 7.7% 10.5% 9.9% 10.4% 9.2% 7.7% 6.1% 1.3%
Charles Hicks 5.1% 4.2% 5.7% 6.6% 6.9% 9.3% 8.1% 7.9% 9.9% 9.1% 11.9% 8.5% 6.0% 0.8%
Jack Eberhardt 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 2.9% 3.6% 5.6% 8.0% 10.0% 16.4% 31.0% 10.0%
Maxwell Eberstadt-Beattie 3.4% 3.5% 4.0% 3.9% 4.8% 5.1% 6.3% 7.0% 8.9% 11.0% 13.1% 14.2% 12.3% 2.5%
Carter Goodell 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 3.7% 9.7% 78.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.