Race 3B

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Alden Grimes 16.0% 17.3% 13.5% 12.3% 9.7% 9.1% 6.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Jackson McCoy 20.8% 18.5% 13.7% 13.3% 11.4% 7.4% 5.7% 4.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Dochoda 11.5% 11.3% 11.4% 10.7% 10.7% 10.4% 8.7% 7.6% 6.8% 5.2% 3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Rachel Foster 7.3% 9.0% 11.1% 7.9% 8.9% 10.7% 9.3% 8.0% 8.4% 7.7% 6.3% 3.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Joseph Chamberlin 3.4% 3.3% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 8.5% 9.8% 11.9% 12.8% 12.5% 2.4%
Emilia Clementi 5.9% 5.6% 6.2% 7.2% 7.6% 9.6% 9.3% 8.1% 10.6% 9.7% 7.5% 7.7% 4.3% 0.7%
Chris Colbeth 3.5% 3.9% 5.6% 5.1% 5.3% 6.5% 6.2% 7.4% 8.7% 11.9% 10.2% 13.0% 10.3% 2.4%
Charles Hicks 5.5% 5.6% 6.7% 6.3% 6.7% 7.5% 7.7% 9.2% 8.6% 10.1% 9.6% 8.9% 6.7% 0.9%
Alexander Bowen 7.2% 6.1% 6.9% 8.1% 9.4% 8.9% 9.5% 10.9% 8.8% 8.5% 7.3% 5.0% 3.0% 0.4%
Peter Girard 4.9% 4.8% 5.9% 6.6% 7.6% 7.0% 8.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.7% 11.0% 8.4% 5.6% 1.1%
Maxwell Eberstadt-Beattie 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 4.8% 4.1% 4.7% 7.7% 7.8% 7.2% 9.9% 14.1% 14.1% 13.3% 3.1%
Jack Eberhardt 1.1% 1.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 5.9% 7.3% 10.1% 17.5% 29.9% 10.1%
Dylan Farrell 9.6% 10.1% 9.0% 10.3% 11.3% 7.6% 9.8% 9.3% 7.7% 6.5% 4.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0%
Carter Goodell 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 2.2% 3.1% 10.4% 78.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.