Race 4B

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Emilia Clementi 6.0% 5.7% 8.0% 7.9% 7.8% 8.8% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7% 8.9% 7.7% 7.4% 3.9% 0.8%
Rachel Foster 9.0% 9.6% 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 8.8% 9.9% 10.2% 8.5% 4.8% 5.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Kyle Dochoda 12.2% 11.4% 11.2% 10.0% 11.3% 9.5% 9.7% 8.3% 5.5% 4.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Chris Colbeth 2.9% 3.2% 4.6% 4.1% 5.6% 6.4% 7.1% 8.0% 8.4% 8.6% 12.9% 13.9% 11.6% 2.7%
Alden Grimes 14.0% 15.3% 15.3% 12.3% 10.2% 9.2% 8.7% 4.9% 4.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Dylan Farrell 9.7% 9.1% 8.2% 9.3% 10.8% 9.6% 8.3% 9.4% 7.6% 7.8% 4.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.4%
Charles Hicks 5.7% 5.7% 7.2% 6.8% 7.7% 6.5% 7.9% 8.9% 10.4% 10.2% 8.6% 9.3% 4.5% 0.6%
Peter Girard 6.1% 5.3% 6.6% 6.9% 6.2% 7.1% 8.1% 8.1% 10.4% 8.8% 11.5% 8.0% 5.9% 1.0%
Jack Eberhardt 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 7.2% 10.7% 14.8% 33.8% 10.4%
Jackson McCoy 18.0% 18.9% 14.1% 13.5% 10.6% 8.9% 6.4% 3.7% 2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Alexander Bowen 6.8% 7.0% 6.7% 9.4% 7.4% 9.4% 9.0% 8.6% 10.0% 10.1% 6.2% 5.3% 3.9% 0.2%
Maxwell Eberstadt-Beattie 3.3% 3.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6% 6.2% 5.3% 7.7% 7.8% 11.7% 12.3% 14.5% 13.8% 2.1%
Joseph Chamberlin 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 5.5% 4.2% 6.1% 6.3% 8.6% 10.1% 10.8% 11.6% 13.1% 10.1% 2.2%
Carter Goodell 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 3.9% 8.8% 79.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.