Race 5B

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jackson McCoy 20.7% 18.2% 15.2% 12.4% 8.7% 8.2% 6.2% 4.1% 3.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Rachel Foster 8.0% 10.8% 9.5% 9.0% 10.4% 9.7% 8.8% 11.8% 8.0% 5.8% 4.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Chris Colbeth 4.3% 3.9% 3.6% 5.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 7.0% 9.5% 12.0% 13.3% 17.4% 6.3% 1.1%
Alden Grimes 15.1% 17.0% 13.4% 12.4% 10.3% 10.1% 6.7% 5.9% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Peter Girard 3.9% 5.5% 6.7% 7.4% 6.6% 8.0% 9.8% 7.1% 10.5% 10.9% 10.3% 9.9% 2.9% 0.5%
Alexander Bowen 7.3% 5.6% 7.4% 6.9% 10.7% 9.6% 10.7% 8.0% 7.9% 9.7% 8.8% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Charles Hicks 6.4% 6.0% 6.7% 6.1% 6.2% 8.0% 10.2% 9.0% 8.8% 10.9% 10.7% 8.7% 1.9% 0.4%
Maxwell Eberstadt-Beattie 3.4% 4.1% 4.3% 3.4% 6.4% 4.6% 5.5% 8.2% 8.9% 10.2% 13.2% 17.0% 8.9% 1.9%
Joseph Chamberlin 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.1% 5.3% 5.0% 7.3% 8.6% 11.1% 10.3% 13.8% 14.9% 6.9% 1.3%
Kyle Dochoda 10.6% 10.7% 12.1% 11.4% 11.2% 10.5% 8.5% 9.4% 6.0% 5.0% 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Emilia Clementi 6.2% 5.3% 6.8% 8.3% 8.0% 8.8% 8.8% 9.3% 10.7% 9.4% 8.5% 7.2% 2.3% 0.4%
Dylan Farrell 8.6% 8.3% 9.9% 11.6% 9.4% 10.7% 10.5% 9.1% 7.5% 6.1% 4.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2%
Griffin Brayer 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 2.0% 3.7% 4.6% 7.4% 44.4% 29.8%
Carter Goodell 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 4.2% 23.0% 64.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.