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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.81+2.43vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.88+6.89vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.53+1.13vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.51+6.25vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+0.67vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+0.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.07vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.26+2.76vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.44-2.83vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.57-1.01vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.80+0.13vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland-0.33+1.50vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia1.34-3.38vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.87-6.05vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.87-3.96vs Predicted
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17Hampton University3.02-11.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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8.89George Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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4.13Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
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10.25Old Dominion University1.510.0%1st Place
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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6.06Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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10.76Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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9.99University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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12.13Christopher Newport University0.800.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Maryland-0.330.0%1st Place
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10.62University of Virginia1.340.0%1st Place
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8.95University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
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12.04William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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5.46Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Segerblom | 24.7% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 13.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Mandell | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Andy Reiter | 16.8% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% |
| Lewis Cooper | 10.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 7.3% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Brill | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 5.9% |
| Ava Esquier | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Victor Layne | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Kempton | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 21.0% | 13.8% |
| Jacob Stoner | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 58.7% |
| Garrett Levy | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Keen Butcher | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 20.4% | 10.8% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.