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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.45+4.84vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.26+4.43vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.12+1.04vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.89+3.90vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11+2.02vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.35+0.28vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania0.86+4.04vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.63+0.44vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.93-4.43vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.80+1.28vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.06-3.88vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.07-1.64vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.04-5.84vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.37-1.66vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.55-2.95vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland-0.35-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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6.43Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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4.04University of Pennsylvania3.120.2%1st Place
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7.9Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.1%1st Place
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6.28George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.04University of Pennsylvania0.860.0%1st Place
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8.44University of Virginia1.630.0%1st Place
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4.57Georgetown University2.930.2%1st Place
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11.28Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Naval Academy2.060.1%1st Place
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10.36Old Dominion University1.070.0%1st Place
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7.16Georgetown University2.040.1%1st Place
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12.34William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
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12.05University of Virginia0.550.0%1st Place
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14.11University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 20.1% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Jessica Bennett | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bennett | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Raemie Ladner | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 6.3% |
| Alexander Singh | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Person | 16.3% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 8.5% |
| Sean Linden | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Emily Harrison | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 5.4% |
| Macey McCann | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Connor Chapin | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 16.8% |
| Trent Levy | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 18.8% | 13.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 18.0% | 47.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.