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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70+4.08vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.60+6.56vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.59+2.38vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16+0.05vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92+2.47vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.97+1.44vs Predicted
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7Penn State University1.13+0.44vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.58-1.50vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.73-0.97vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.67-2.42vs Predicted
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11George Washington University-0.66+1.09vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-0.21-1.02vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.35-6.82vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-0.45-2.54vs Predicted
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15American University-0.61-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7011.3%1st Place
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8.56Christopher Newport University0.605.1%1st Place
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5.38Old Dominion University1.5912.3%1st Place
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4.05U. S. Naval Academy2.1620.4%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland0.926.2%1st Place
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7.44Old Dominion University0.975.8%1st Place
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7.44Penn State University1.135.5%1st Place
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6.5Hampton University0.588.3%1st Place
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8.03Christopher Newport University0.734.7%1st Place
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7.58Virginia Tech0.675.8%1st Place
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12.09George Washington University-0.661.2%1st Place
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10.98William and Mary-0.211.9%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Naval Academy1.358.6%1st Place
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11.46University of Maryland-0.451.6%1st Place
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11.79American University-0.611.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 11.3% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 20.4% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Brown | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Frank Wildi | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 19.6% | 29.1% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| Leo Robillard | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| Miles White | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 20.2% | 24.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.