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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.77+6.75vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.53+6.85vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.60+5.57vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.75+3.84vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+3.89vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.24+3.94vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.70+5.48vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.21+2.41vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.88+2.36vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.48-1.16vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.73-3.10vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.49+1.65vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-7.33vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.60-1.04vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.82-3.31vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.95-0.86vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.77-9.27vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-7.91vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island3.09-8.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.753.770.1%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.57Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.84College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.89Bowdoin College3.560.0%1st Place
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9.94Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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12.48University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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10.41Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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11.36U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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8.84Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.9Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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13.65George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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5.67Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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12.96Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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11.69Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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15.14Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.73Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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10.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Rhode Island3.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Ingram | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Augie Dale | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Maxwell Brill | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Charles Sinks | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 14.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.7% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 10.7% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% |
| Mark Davies | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 33.9% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Mack Fox | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.