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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.28vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.25+3.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.56+1.95vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.50+1.17vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.91+1.91vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.73+1.87vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+1.33vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University0.36+4.16vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+2.43vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.90+0.57vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.67-2.95vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89-4.87vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University0.10+0.19vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-5.12vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.79-4.03vs Predicted
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16Queen's University0.99-5.62vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-1.26-1.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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5.85Georgetown University2.250.1%1st Place
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4.95U. S. Naval Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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5.17U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.91Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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7.87Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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12.16Monmouth University0.360.0%1st Place
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11.43Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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10.57SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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8.05Fordham University1.670.1%1st Place
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7.13Christopher Newport University1.890.1%1st Place
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13.19Georgetown University0.100.0%1st Place
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8.88SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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10.97SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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10.38Queen's University0.990.0%1st Place
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15.89Syracuse University-1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Mais | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brittney Slook | 13.4% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 13.6% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 15.0% | 19.9% | 6.4% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
| Scott McKenzie | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Charney | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Gretchen McCarthy | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 22.7% | 14.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| James Gilmore III | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% |
| Josh Yale | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Jacob Correia | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 12.6% | 67.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.