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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.93vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.56+2.43vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.25+2.44vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University0.10+8.33vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.91+1.39vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.50-1.17vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+0.70vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.69vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.67-1.57vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.73-3.05vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook0.79-0.66vs Predicted
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12Queen's University0.99-2.44vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University0.36-1.30vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-1.07+1.11vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-4.56vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.80-5.72vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-1.26-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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4.43U. S. Naval Academy2.560.2%1st Place
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5.44Georgetown University2.250.1%1st Place
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12.33Georgetown University0.100.0%1st Place
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6.39Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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4.83U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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9.69SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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7.43Fordham University1.670.1%1st Place
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6.95Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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10.34SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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9.56Queen's University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.7Monmouth University0.360.0%1st Place
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15.11SUNY Maritime College-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.44Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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10.28Christopher Newport University0.800.0%1st Place
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15.44Syracuse University-1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 14.3% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brittney Slook | 16.4% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Mais | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gretchen McCarthy | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 4.6% |
| Bridget Groble | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Scott McKenzie | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Gilmore III | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Josh Yale | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 4.4% |
| zoe clougher | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 28.0% | 39.3% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Benjamin Kempton | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Jacob Correia | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 25.3% | 46.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.