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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70+4.03vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.60+6.69vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+0.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.35+1.97vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92+2.42vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.58+0.31vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59-1.73vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.73+0.03vs Predicted
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9Penn State University1.13-1.58vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.97-2.46vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.67-3.34vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-0.21-0.89vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland-0.45-1.45vs Predicted
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14American University-0.61-2.02vs Predicted
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15George Washington University-0.66-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7013.0%1st Place
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8.69Christopher Newport University0.604.0%1st Place
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3.94U. S. Naval Academy2.1619.8%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Naval Academy1.3510.0%1st Place
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7.42St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.7%1st Place
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6.31Hampton University0.587.7%1st Place
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5.27Old Dominion University1.5912.4%1st Place
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8.03Christopher Newport University0.735.2%1st Place
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7.42Penn State University1.136.3%1st Place
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7.54Old Dominion University0.974.5%1st Place
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7.66Virginia Tech0.675.5%1st Place
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11.11William and Mary-0.211.7%1st Place
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11.55University of Maryland-0.451.6%1st Place
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11.98American University-0.611.5%1st Place
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12.07George Washington University-0.661.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 13.0% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 19.8% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leo Robillard | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Scott Opert | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 12.4% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| James Lilyquist | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 19.7% | 19.3% |
| Miles White | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 19.0% | 28.2% |
| Frank Wildi | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 19.8% | 28.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.