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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
7.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University-1.49+17.32vs Predicted
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2Washington College-0.76+15.60vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40+10.23vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.07+6.91vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan1.44+8.44vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.93+1.46vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.37+2.73vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.31+2.20vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.05+1.79vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.96-2.75vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.71-2.76vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.93-4.24vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.97-5.94vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.20-3.49vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.70-6.76vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.75-7.89vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.92-9.57vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University3.23-11.81vs Predicted
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19Tufts University2.82-11.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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18.32North Carolina State University-1.490.0%1st Place
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17.6Washington College-0.760.0%1st Place
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13.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
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10.91Fordham University2.070.0%1st Place
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13.44University of Michigan1.440.0%1st Place
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7.46University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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9.73Cornell University2.370.0%1st Place
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10.2Northeastern University2.310.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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8.24Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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7.76Boston College2.930.1%1st Place
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7.06Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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10.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.200.0%1st Place
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8.24Brown University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.11Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.43Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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6.19Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.52Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anneliese Carlson | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 26.8% | 65.1% |
| Andrew Houghton | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 49.2% | 33.0% |
| Christos Karplus | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 15.7% | 23.7% | 8.0% | 0.7% |
| Sam Johnsen | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Colton Gerber | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 21.9% | 7.1% | 0.9% |
| Luke Ingalls | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Luke Andersen | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Riggs | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Colin Richards | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter Florio | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Brego | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chung | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Andersen | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Ladd | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Hawk | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Harding | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.