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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.63vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.76+1.62vs Predicted
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3Washington College1.26+4.24vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.53+2.64vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.33+2.19vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook2.59-1.90vs Predicted
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7Drexel University0.58+2.09vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.22-3.09vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-3.05vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University0.36-0.26vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.34-1.24vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.14-1.58vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.30-1.63vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.62-0.45vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-1.88-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.3%1st Place
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3.62U. S. Naval Academy2.760.2%1st Place
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7.24Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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6.64Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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7.19Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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4.1SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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9.09Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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4.91University of Pennsylvania2.220.1%1st Place
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5.95Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.1%1st Place
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9.74Monmouth University0.360.0%1st Place
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9.76Ocean County College0.340.0%1st Place
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10.42Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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11.37University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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13.55Rutgers University-1.620.0%1st Place
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13.78Penn State University-1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 33.0% | 24.8% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 17.4% | 20.0% | 16.9% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 13.4% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 10.8% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 1.3% |
| Troy Dittenhofer | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 15.5% | 17.7% | 18.2% | 8.0% | 1.1% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 23.9% | 16.1% | 5.9% |
| Robert Jarrett | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 31.2% | 39.5% |
| victor lu | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 26.3% | 50.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.