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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.50+1.86vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+2.03vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.86+1.09vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+1.94vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.69vs Predicted
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6Drexel University0.72+1.19vs Predicted
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7University of Delaware-0.95+4.60vs Predicted
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8Rutgers University-0.94+3.68vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.05+0.04vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.23-1.40vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.37-5.51vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.53-4.13vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College-0.80-1.50vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.57-1.04vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute-0.47-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.86U. S. Naval Academy2.500.3%1st Place
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4.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.2%1st Place
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4.09University of Pennsylvania1.860.2%1st Place
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5.94Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.1%1st Place
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6.69SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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7.19Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.6University of Delaware-0.950.0%1st Place
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11.68Rutgers University-0.940.0%1st Place
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9.04Princeton University0.050.0%1st Place
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8.6Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.49Villanova University1.370.1%1st Place
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7.87Monmouth University0.530.0%1st Place
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11.5Ocean County College-0.800.0%1st Place
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12.96Penn State University-1.570.0%1st Place
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10.45Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Gartner | 31.0% | 22.7% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 16.0% | 17.4% | 14.8% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Probst | 15.3% | 15.1% | 17.0% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Martha Diezemann | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 18.5% |
| Jeremy Welsch | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 21.5% | 16.9% |
| Zak Dasaro | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Bailey Cornog | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayleigh Godfrey | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Sean Boland | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Justin Dillman | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 18.6% | 40.6% |
| Declan Gaylo | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.