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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.96vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.89+2.55vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.43+0.57vs Predicted
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4University of Rochester0.95+2.50vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.05-0.76vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.51+1.37vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy-0.90+3.08vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.83-1.37vs Predicted
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9Hamilton College-0.54+0.50vs Predicted
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11University of Toronto-1.58+0.24vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-1.37-1.12vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.85-2.84vs Predicted
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14University of Toronto-1.58-2.76vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.04-10.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.5%1st Place
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4.55Queen's University1.890.1%1st Place
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3.57Cornell University2.430.2%1st Place
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6.5University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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4.24SUNY Maritime College2.050.1%1st Place
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7.37Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Military Academy-0.900.0%1st Place
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6.63Syracuse University0.830.0%1st Place
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9.5Hamilton College-0.540.0%1st Place
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11.24University of Toronto-1.580.0%1st Place
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10.88University of Buffalo-1.370.0%1st Place
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10.16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.850.0%1st Place
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11.24University of Toronto-1.580.0%1st Place
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4.31Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 47.0% | 27.0% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Gittens | 8.6% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 15.3% | 18.9% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 12.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 10.3% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 16.0% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hare | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 19.1% | 19.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Klebahn | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 19.2% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Moubarak | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 18.3% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Schwarz | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 21.0% | 37.6% | 0.0% |
| Max Paikin | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 22.9% | 25.7% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilson | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 17.5% | 19.8% | 19.4% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Avery Schwarz | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 21.0% | 37.6% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 8.7% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.