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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.99vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.89+2.58vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.43+0.60vs Predicted
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4University of Rochester0.95+2.50vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.04-0.69vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.05-1.82vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.51+0.25vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.83-1.36vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy-0.90+1.16vs Predicted
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10Hamilton College-0.54-0.59vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-1.58-0.79vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.85-2.88vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo-1.37-2.96vs Predicted
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15University of Toronto-1.58-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.4%1st Place
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4.58Queen's University1.890.1%1st Place
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3.6Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.5University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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4.31Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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4.18SUNY Maritime College2.050.1%1st Place
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7.25Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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6.64Syracuse University0.830.0%1st Place
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10.16U. S. Military Academy-0.900.0%1st Place
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9.41Hamilton College-0.540.0%1st Place
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11.21University of Toronto-1.580.0%1st Place
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10.12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.850.0%1st Place
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11.04University of Buffalo-1.370.0%1st Place
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11.21University of Toronto-1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 44.8% | 29.7% | 13.2% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Gittens | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 14.1% | 18.7% | 19.2% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 17.4% | 12.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 10.3% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 11.1% | 12.2% | 17.5% | 16.6% | 16.8% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 17.2% | 11.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Parker Klebahn | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hare | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 20.0% | 19.1% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Michael Moubarak | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 19.5% | 17.0% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Avery Schwarz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 11.7% | 16.9% | 23.2% | 32.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilson | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 16.1% | 18.3% | 19.6% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Max Paikin | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 21.3% | 31.2% | 0.0% |
| Avery Schwarz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 11.7% | 16.9% | 23.2% | 32.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.