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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.14+1.88vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.37+5.12vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.20+1.89vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.55+2.72vs Predicted
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5Wesleyan University0.55+4.45vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.78+0.10vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.39+0.16vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.28-3.18vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.57-2.38vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.15-4.83vs Predicted
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11McGill University0.73-1.96vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.11-0.78vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut-1.58-1.43vs Predicted
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16Yale University-0.08-5.02vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-2.40-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.88Tufts University3.140.3%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.370.0%1st Place
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4.89Brown University2.200.1%1st Place
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6.72Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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9.45Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.1Northeastern University1.780.1%1st Place
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7.16Salve Regina University1.390.1%1st Place
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4.82University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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6.62Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.17University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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9.04McGill University0.730.0%1st Place
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11.22Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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13.57University of Connecticut-1.580.0%1st Place
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10.98Yale University-0.080.0%1st Place
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14.27Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McCoy | 30.8% | 24.8% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Darden Purrington | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Housberg | 12.1% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 16.5% | 11.9% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Caleb Niles | 6.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline King | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 12.6% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Tipton | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rebecca Read | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Zeelander | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Ian Rashleigh McNally | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 18.9% | 26.8% | 13.4% | 1.7% |
| Samuel Gray | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 43.0% | 29.8% |
| Patrick Buehler | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 19.1% | 26.0% | 11.1% | 2.1% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 22.6% | 64.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.