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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.20+3.87vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.14+0.81vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.15+1.98vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.55+2.68vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.28-0.18vs Predicted
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6McGill University0.73+3.03vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.39+0.16vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.37-0.76vs Predicted
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9Wesleyan University0.55+0.44vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.78-3.80vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.57-4.30vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.11-0.80vs Predicted
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14Yale University-0.08-2.90vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut-1.58-1.50vs Predicted
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16Sacred Heart University-2.40-1.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87Brown University2.200.1%1st Place
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2.81Tufts University3.140.3%1st Place
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4.98University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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6.68Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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4.82University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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9.03McGill University0.730.0%1st Place
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7.16Salve Regina University1.390.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.370.0%1st Place
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9.44Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.2Northeastern University1.780.1%1st Place
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6.7Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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11.2Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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11.1Yale University-0.080.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Connecticut-1.580.0%1st Place
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14.28Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Housberg | 12.2% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 31.6% | 23.2% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rebecca Read | 10.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Zeelander | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Caroline King | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Darden Purrington | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Caleb Niles | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Martin Tipton | 5.1% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Rashleigh McNally | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 19.4% | 27.1% | 12.8% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Buehler | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 18.5% | 26.4% | 13.4% | 2.1% |
| Samuel Gray | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 13.5% | 42.3% | 29.1% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 5.8% | 21.0% | 66.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.