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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.15+4.07vs Predicted
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2Wesleyan University0.55+7.30vs Predicted
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3McGill University0.73+5.92vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.78+2.10vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.55+1.78vs Predicted
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6Yale University1.57+0.71vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.14-4.07vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.39-0.82vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.28-4.35vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.20-4.99vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.37-3.73vs Predicted
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12Yale University-0.08-0.83vs Predicted
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13Bates College-0.11-1.85vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut-1.58-2.51vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-2.40-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.07University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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9.3Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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8.92McGill University0.730.0%1st Place
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6.1Northeastern University1.780.1%1st Place
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6.78Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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6.71Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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2.93Tufts University3.140.3%1st Place
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7.18Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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4.65University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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5.01Brown University2.200.1%1st Place
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7.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.370.0%1st Place
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11.17Yale University-0.080.0%1st Place
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11.15Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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13.49University of Connecticut-1.580.0%1st Place
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14.29Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Read | 10.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Zach Zeelander | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 13.6% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Caleb Niles | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Martin Tipton | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 30.2% | 21.1% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline King | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 12.1% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Housberg | 10.3% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Darden Purrington | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Buehler | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 28.6% | 12.7% | 1.2% |
| Ian Rashleigh McNally | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 19.9% | 26.3% | 13.8% | 2.2% |
| Samuel Gray | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 11.2% | 43.1% | 29.3% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 21.5% | 65.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.