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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.28+3.64vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.78+3.99vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.14-0.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.37+3.18vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.20+0.06vs Predicted
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6McGill University0.73+3.07vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.55-0.31vs Predicted
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8Wesleyan University0.55+1.49vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.57-2.40vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.15-4.85vs Predicted
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11Bates College-0.11+0.06vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.39-4.61vs Predicted
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13Yale University-0.08-1.94vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut-1.58-2.50vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-2.40-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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5.99Northeastern University1.780.1%1st Place
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2.84Tufts University3.140.3%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.370.0%1st Place
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5.06Brown University2.200.1%1st Place
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9.07McGill University0.730.0%1st Place
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6.69Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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9.49Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.6Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.15University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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11.06Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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7.39Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.06Yale University-0.080.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Connecticut-1.580.0%1st Place
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14.26Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael O'Flaherty | 14.3% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Niles | 6.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 31.2% | 22.7% | 16.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Darden Purrington | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Housberg | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Zach Zeelander | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Skye Shepherd | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| Martin Tipton | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Rebecca Read | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Rashleigh McNally | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 25.6% | 13.6% | 3.0% |
| Caroline King | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Buehler | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 19.1% | 25.3% | 13.4% | 2.1% |
| Samuel Gray | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 11.7% | 44.0% | 28.6% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 20.6% | 65.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.