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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.14+1.86vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.28+2.67vs Predicted
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3McGill University0.73+5.91vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.57+2.64vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.20+0.01vs Predicted
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6Wesleyan University0.55+3.48vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.15-1.90vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.55-1.26vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.37-1.86vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.78-3.82vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.39-3.79vs Predicted
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13Bates College-0.11-1.79vs Predicted
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14Yale University-0.08-2.92vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut-1.58-2.50vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-2.40-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.86Tufts University3.140.3%1st Place
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4.67University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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8.91McGill University0.730.0%1st Place
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6.64Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.01Brown University2.200.1%1st Place
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9.48Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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5.1University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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6.74Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.370.0%1st Place
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6.18Northeastern University1.780.1%1st Place
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7.21Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.21Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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11.08Yale University-0.080.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Connecticut-1.580.0%1st Place
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14.28Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McCoy | 30.9% | 23.9% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 12.4% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Zeelander | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Martin Tipton | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Housberg | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 0.4% |
| Rebecca Read | 11.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Darden Purrington | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Caleb Niles | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline King | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Rashleigh McNally | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 18.7% | 28.3% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Buehler | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 25.2% | 13.9% | 2.2% |
| Samuel Gray | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 42.8% | 29.1% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 6.3% | 20.7% | 66.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.