← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+7.26vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College3.53+5.24vs Predicted
-
3George Washington University3.41+4.74vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+4.27vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College2.69+5.35vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island2.76+4.23vs Predicted
-
7Yale University3.13+1.72vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University3.39-0.44vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-0.79vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.29vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University2.50+0.30vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University2.71-1.27vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-6.96vs Predicted
-
14Boston College3.73-7.93vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-6.55vs Predicted
-
16University of Miami2.08-3.12vs Predicted
-
17University of Wisconsin1.56-2.33vs Predicted
-
18Florida State University1.69-4.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
7.24Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
-
7.74George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
8.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
-
10.35SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
-
10.23University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
-
8.72Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
-
7.56Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
-
8.21U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
-
10.29University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
-
11.3Old Dominion University2.500.0%1st Place
-
10.73Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
-
6.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
6.07Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
-
8.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
-
12.88University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
-
14.67University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
-
14.0Florida State University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Kyle Comerford | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| Brendan Read | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| William Logue | 7.0% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Alec Chicoine | 4.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
| Matt Cappetta | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Max Thompson | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 14.9% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 18.0% | 33.9% |
| Jeffrey Hayden | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 16.7% | 24.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.