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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+5.39vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.53+5.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+5.53vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.13+4.59vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.73+1.27vs Predicted
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6Florida State University1.69+8.14vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41+0.50vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.96vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.08+3.88vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.56+4.68vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.76-0.62vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-3.60vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.39-5.52vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.71-3.95vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-6.66vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.50-4.65vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.69-6.46vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-9.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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7.23Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.59Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.27Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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14.14Florida State University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.5George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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12.88University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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14.68University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
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10.38University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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8.4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.48Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.05Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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8.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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11.35Old Dominion University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.54SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Ingram | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Peter Hogan | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Hayden | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 26.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Max Thompson | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 12.5% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 34.2% |
| Brendan Read | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| William Logue | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Matt Cappetta | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Mack Fox | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Alec Chicoine | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Kyle Comerford | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.