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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.41+6.75vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.53+5.23vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.69+7.72vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.13+4.57vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+1.14vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.22+1.26vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.71+2.33vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.39-1.54vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.73-3.49vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-2.53vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.59vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.50-1.91vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.08-1.50vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.56-0.43vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.69-1.76vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.76-6.61vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-9.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.23Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.72SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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8.57Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.06St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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10.33Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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7.46Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.51Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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10.41University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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11.09Old Dominion University2.500.0%1st Place
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12.5University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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14.57University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
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14.24Florida State University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.39University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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8.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Friesecke | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Comerford | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Ty Ingram | 11.6% | 13.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Matt Cappetta | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| William Logue | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Charles Sinks | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 3.9% |
| Alec Chicoine | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% |
| Max Thompson | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.9% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 33.2% |
| Jeffrey Hayden | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 27.8% |
| Brendan Read | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.