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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.19+6.31vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.09+5.63vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.05+4.76vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.53+1.83vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.32+5.35vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.35+0.45vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74+5.64vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.95-0.13vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.70-0.08vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.53vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.58+2.33vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94-3.61vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.45-3.18vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania3.12-6.91vs Predicted
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15Florida State University1.37-1.10vs Predicted
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16University of Miami1.82-3.55vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.95-1.81vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.00-10.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.63University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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7.76Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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5.83Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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10.35George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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6.45Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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12.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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7.87Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.700.0%1st Place
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8.47U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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13.33University of Wisconsin1.580.0%1st Place
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8.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.09University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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13.9Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
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15.19SUNY Maritime College0.950.0%1st Place
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7.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.000.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Williford | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Casey Klingler | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Andy Reiter | 12.0% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Wade Waddell | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Devin Keister | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 10.4% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Shane Riera | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Maxwell Brill | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Noah Janssen | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 15.5% |
| Lewis Cooper | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| Kyle Magno | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 8.3% |
| Alexander Ellis | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 16.1% | 39.5% |
| Ivan Shestopalov | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.