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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.03+2.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91+3.35vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.76+0.57vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.19+0.77vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.60-1.08vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.25-2.36vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island0.97-1.77vs Predicted
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11Yale University0.32-2.54vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.29-5.44vs Predicted
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13Yale University0.34-4.61vs Predicted
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17Amherst College-1.57-6.00vs Predicted
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18Amherst College-1.54-6.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.1Brown University3.030.3%1st Place
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5.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.1%1st Place
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3.57Tufts University2.760.2%1st Place
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4.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.190.1%1st Place
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3.92Brown University2.600.2%1st Place
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4.64Tufts University2.250.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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8.46Yale University0.320.0%1st Place
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6.56University of Rhode Island1.290.0%1st Place
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8.39Yale University0.340.0%1st Place
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11.0Amherst College-1.570.0%1st Place
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11.02Amherst College-1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecilia Strombeck | 25.3% | 20.0% | 17.8% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 6.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 19.9% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Simon | 8.8% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Helen Lord | 15.2% | 17.6% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Denney | 12.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Young | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 16.6% | 19.9% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 0.6% |
| Nace Cohen | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 18.5% | 28.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Foreman | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 21.8% | 26.4% | 12.0% | 1.8% |
| Marco Catipovic | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 33.9% | 47.5% |
| Korey Charles | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 33.4% | 47.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.