Race 12A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Stephen Duncan 11.8% 11.1% 11.7% 9.6% 9.0% 8.1% 8.8% 6.7% 6.4% 5.4% 4.1% 3.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8%
Nathan Housberg 5.6% 6.7% 7.6% 7.7% 8.0% 6.6% 8.6% 6.9% 7.0% 7.9% 8.2% 6.1% 5.8% 4.9% 2.4%
Colin Brego 14.5% 12.8% 11.1% 10.5% 10.3% 8.9% 7.5% 7.0% 6.0% 3.8% 3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Nicholas Marwell 13.5% 12.5% 11.7% 9.7% 9.5% 8.3% 7.6% 7.9% 5.2% 4.3% 4.4% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2%
Gregory Corsello 7.1% 7.8% 7.2% 6.1% 6.0% 8.1% 7.1% 8.1% 9.5% 6.8% 6.9% 6.7% 6.3% 4.4% 1.9%
Samuel Shea 7.6% 6.8% 6.2% 7.2% 7.5% 8.1% 7.4% 9.2% 8.5% 8.1% 5.3% 7.1% 5.3% 4.1% 1.6%
Andrew Puopolo 7.0% 5.0% 4.9% 7.9% 6.3% 6.8% 6.4% 8.9% 7.0% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 6.9% 5.4% 3.9%
Sean Beaulieu 6.3% 7.1% 6.2% 7.2% 7.1% 7.5% 6.2% 7.3% 6.9% 8.1% 7.9% 8.6% 6.1% 4.4% 3.1%
Christopher Pearson 3.8% 3.7% 4.7% 4.6% 5.3% 6.6% 6.6% 6.0% 7.0% 8.4% 8.6% 8.5% 9.9% 10.5% 5.8%
Peter Neal 7.0% 5.1% 10.1% 7.0% 8.6% 8.0% 8.0% 6.8% 8.5% 7.0% 7.3% 5.7% 6.0% 3.5% 1.4%
Cameron Nash 5.3% 8.8% 6.6% 7.8% 7.2% 7.1% 8.2% 6.2% 6.5% 7.7% 7.3% 6.4% 6.7% 5.1% 3.1%
Jack Ryan 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.5% 5.1% 5.9% 5.4% 6.2% 8.4% 11.8% 15.1% 25.1%
Ryan Gershuny 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 3.4% 4.2% 2.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% 5.6% 7.5% 8.0% 12.4% 15.9% 22.3%
Emmett Ulian 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% 2.6% 3.8% 3.6% 4.2% 5.2% 5.0% 6.9% 8.8% 9.5% 16.3% 24.6%
Charles Honke 5.1% 6.5% 5.4% 5.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.7% 5.8% 6.7% 8.8% 8.2% 9.7% 8.3% 7.5% 3.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.