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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.76+2.63vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.03+1.08vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.60-0.11vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.19-0.24vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-1.68vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.25-3.33vs Predicted
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10Yale University0.32-1.57vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.29-4.47vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.97-5.78vs Predicted
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14Yale University0.34-5.57vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-1.57-4.00vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-1.54-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63Tufts University2.760.2%1st Place
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3.08Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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3.89Brown University2.600.2%1st Place
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4.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.190.1%1st Place
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5.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.1%1st Place
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4.67Tufts University2.250.1%1st Place
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8.43Yale University0.320.0%1st Place
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6.53University of Rhode Island1.290.1%1st Place
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7.22University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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8.43Yale University0.340.0%1st Place
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11.0Amherst College-1.570.0%1st Place
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11.03Amherst College-1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Max Bulger | 18.1% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 17.4% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cecilia Strombeck | 24.3% | 22.1% | 18.1% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Helen Lord | 17.5% | 14.5% | 15.7% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Simon | 8.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Denney | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nace Cohen | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 19.6% | 28.4% | 10.8% | 3.4% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 18.7% | 14.0% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Douglas Young | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Foreman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 21.7% | 26.8% | 13.1% | 1.6% |
| Marco Catipovic | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 35.2% | 46.9% |
| Korey Charles | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 34.4% | 47.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.