Race 12B

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Drake Lyon 12.7% 13.0% 13.1% 11.2% 10.1% 8.0% 7.3% 6.8% 6.8% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2%
John Mastrandrea 11.7% 12.3% 10.9% 10.3% 9.8% 8.4% 9.0% 7.6% 6.2% 5.0% 3.3% 3.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Julien Guiot 9.8% 10.1% 9.8% 11.2% 8.1% 10.4% 6.6% 9.8% 7.2% 6.5% 4.4% 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Daniel Petrovic 13.6% 12.5% 10.8% 9.7% 10.3% 8.7% 7.8% 7.0% 8.0% 4.5% 3.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Martin Tipton 4.2% 4.3% 5.4% 3.6% 5.6% 4.8% 7.6% 5.8% 5.9% 7.8% 11.0% 11.8% 10.0% 8.7% 3.5%
Peter Galloway 1.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 3.7% 4.4% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% 13.0% 22.8% 23.9%
Carina Becker 5.1% 3.2% 3.9% 5.0% 4.3% 5.5% 6.6% 6.3% 8.8% 8.5% 8.8% 11.3% 9.5% 8.6% 4.6%
James Peraire-Bueno 5.3% 4.5% 5.3% 6.8% 5.5% 6.9% 6.5% 7.7% 8.9% 8.1% 9.5% 8.0% 8.3% 6.0% 2.7%
Thomas Harden 12.8% 13.1% 14.2% 11.4% 9.7% 7.5% 9.1% 7.8% 5.2% 3.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0%
Owen Schafer 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 6.4% 6.6% 7.3% 8.8% 6.8% 7.6% 9.9% 8.9% 8.2% 8.2% 6.2% 1.5%
Rowan Byrne 3.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.7% 7.6% 6.5% 6.9% 7.8% 9.5% 7.8% 9.0% 8.3% 7.3% 3.3%
Victoria Pajak 3.6% 2.8% 4.0% 4.8% 7.3% 6.2% 5.2% 7.0% 7.1% 8.7% 9.5% 11.0% 10.9% 8.0% 3.9%
Michael O'Flaherty 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 8.3% 6.6% 8.8% 8.7% 9.7% 8.7% 8.8% 7.9% 4.6% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7%
Caroline King 3.0% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 6.2% 5.9% 6.3% 4.8% 5.6% 8.2% 9.4% 11.1% 12.9% 11.3% 5.2%
Thomas Bouchard 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 2.3% 3.8% 5.3% 9.1% 15.9% 50.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.