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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.76+2.63vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.19+2.76vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.25+0.59vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.03-2.92vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.97+0.35vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.60-4.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-3.78vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.29-4.47vs Predicted
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12Yale University0.32-3.52vs Predicted
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14Yale University0.34-5.58vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-1.54-4.00vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-1.57-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63Tufts University2.760.2%1st Place
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4.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.190.1%1st Place
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4.59Tufts University2.250.1%1st Place
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3.08Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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7.35University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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3.86Brown University2.600.2%1st Place
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5.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.1%1st Place
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6.53University of Rhode Island1.290.0%1st Place
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8.48Yale University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.42Yale University0.340.0%1st Place
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11.0Amherst College-1.540.0%1st Place
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11.07Amherst College-1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Max Bulger | 17.9% | 16.8% | 17.3% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Simon | 9.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Denney | 12.5% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cecilia Strombeck | 23.4% | 24.0% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Young | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 16.6% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Helen Lord | 17.2% | 14.4% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Nace Cohen | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 28.1% | 11.4% | 1.3% |
| Zachary Foreman | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 21.0% | 27.2% | 11.6% | 2.0% |
| Korey Charles | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 35.9% | 46.1% |
| Marco Catipovic | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.