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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.23+5.17vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.25+3.97vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.99+3.94vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.96+3.10vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.83+5.85vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.21+0.20vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.75+0.81vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.24-1.84vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.90-1.78vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.51-1.24vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-4.67vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.62-0.25vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.79-1.83vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.70-6.00vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-5.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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5.97Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College2.990.1%1st Place
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7.1Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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10.85University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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6.2Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.81Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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6.16Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.22Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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8.76Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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6.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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11.75Salve Regina University1.620.0%1st Place
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11.17Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.0University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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9.56Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Harding | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Emma White | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Jack McGraw | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Peter Girard | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 15.7% | 21.7% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Matt Safford | 7.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Cameron Holley | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Peter Lynn | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Reed Lorimer | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.2% |
| Mack Fox | 9.4% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Bridget Lawless | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 18.0% | 28.0% |
| Zachary Bresnick | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 22.3% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Frank Reeg | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.