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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.19+3.82vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.76+1.61vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.03-0.90vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.25-0.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-0.70vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.60-3.10vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.97-3.78vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.29-5.49vs Predicted
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13Yale University0.32-4.54vs Predicted
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14Yale University0.34-5.60vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-1.54-4.01vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-1.57-4.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.190.1%1st Place
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3.61Tufts University2.760.2%1st Place
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3.1Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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4.64Tufts University2.250.1%1st Place
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5.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.1%1st Place
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3.9Brown University2.600.2%1st Place
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7.22University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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6.51University of Rhode Island1.290.1%1st Place
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8.46Yale University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.4Yale University0.340.0%1st Place
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10.99Amherst College-1.540.0%1st Place
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11.05Amherst College-1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Simon | 9.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 17.9% | 19.8% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cecilia Strombeck | 24.9% | 20.6% | 17.5% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Denney | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Helen Lord | 16.3% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Young | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 17.3% | 14.1% | 5.4% | 0.7% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Nace Cohen | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 19.6% | 29.0% | 11.0% | 1.3% |
| Zachary Foreman | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 21.0% | 27.4% | 11.5% | 2.0% |
| Korey Charles | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 8.6% | 35.8% | 46.0% |
| Marco Catipovic | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 32.8% | 49.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.