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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.59+1.66vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.60vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.60+1.40vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.04+1.86vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.33+2.80vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.40+1.58vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.52+0.20vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84-1.59vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.64+0.62vs Predicted
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10Columbia University-0.24+1.80vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.14-0.08vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.80-2.61vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.44-5.35vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-2.29vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.66Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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2.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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4.4Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.86Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.8Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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7.58University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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7.2Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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9.62Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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11.8Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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10.92Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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9.39Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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7.65SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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11.71SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.41Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Parkin | 30.8% | 23.9% | 19.5% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 31.2% | 26.1% | 17.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 11.1% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 4.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Austin Haag | 2.9% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.7% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 17.9% | 30.1% | 7.5% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 5.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 17.9% | 27.3% | 6.8% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 78.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.