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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.65vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.40+5.43vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.59-0.40vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.33+3.75vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.60-0.46vs Predicted
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6Columbia University-0.24+5.75vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University0.64+2.59vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.04-2.07vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84-2.66vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.49vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.52-3.68vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.80-2.54vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-1.18vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.14-3.10vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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7.43University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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2.6Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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7.75Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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4.54Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.75Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.59Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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5.93Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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7.51SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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7.32Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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9.46Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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11.82SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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10.9Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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14.39Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 29.0% | 27.3% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Haag | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 30.3% | 24.5% | 22.0% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 11.0% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 20.5% | 26.1% | 8.2% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 1.1% |
| Grace Howie | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.0% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| William Sunkler | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 13.6% | 17.3% | 30.1% | 7.8% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 19.2% | 17.4% | 2.8% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 79.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.