← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.04+4.77vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University2.60+2.41vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University1.33+4.68vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-1.33vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+1.49vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University3.59-3.31vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University1.52+0.22vs Predicted
-
8University of Michigan1.40-0.45vs Predicted
-
9Washington College0.80+0.18vs Predicted
-
10Princeton University0.14+1.01vs Predicted
-
11Fairfield University0.64-1.29vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College1.44-4.39vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-1.15vs Predicted
-
14Amherst College-2.18+0.46vs Predicted
-
15Columbia University-0.24-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.77Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
-
4.41Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
-
7.68Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
-
2.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
-
6.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
-
2.69Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
-
7.22Columbia University1.520.1%1st Place
-
7.55University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
-
9.18Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
-
11.01Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
-
9.71Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
-
7.61SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
-
11.85SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
-
14.46Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
-
11.7Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Howie | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 10.3% | 14.2% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Charles Miller | 30.5% | 24.6% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 27.6% | 26.0% | 19.9% | 13.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Austin Haag | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 19.1% | 16.6% | 4.6% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 20.1% | 27.9% | 7.9% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 10.4% | 78.8% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 19.1% | 29.0% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.