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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.59+1.69vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.61vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.33+4.66vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.60+0.48vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+1.42vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.52+1.28vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04-1.13vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University0.64+1.63vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.40-1.48vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.47vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.80-1.75vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-0.13vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.14-1.94vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-0.24-2.25vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.69Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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2.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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4.48Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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7.28Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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5.87Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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9.63Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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7.52University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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7.53SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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9.25Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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11.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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11.06Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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11.75Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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14.39Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Parkin | 29.9% | 25.2% | 18.5% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 30.6% | 26.1% | 17.7% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 9.2% | 15.1% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Grace Howie | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 1.6% |
| Austin Haag | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| William Sunkler | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 19.5% | 28.4% | 6.8% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 16.5% | 19.4% | 18.8% | 3.5% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 19.6% | 26.9% | 7.0% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 79.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.