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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University1.52+6.18vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.59vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.33+4.67vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan1.40+3.59vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.44+2.52vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+0.37vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.59-4.36vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.04-2.10vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.80+0.19vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.14+1.00vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.64-1.35vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.60-7.30vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-1.14vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-0.24-2.24vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.18Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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2.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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7.67Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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7.59University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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7.52SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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2.64Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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5.9Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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9.19Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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11.0Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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9.65Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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4.7Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.86SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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11.76Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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14.39Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liliana Loosbrock | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Charles Miller | 32.2% | 24.2% | 19.5% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Austin Haag | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 30.1% | 26.2% | 18.4% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 17.4% | 18.6% | 4.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 2.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 9.0% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 21.4% | 28.0% | 7.6% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 18.5% | 28.3% | 6.5% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 78.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.