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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.60+3.45vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.59vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.59-0.36vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.04+1.86vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.33+2.80vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+0.42vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.52+0.23vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.57vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.40-1.47vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.80-0.71vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.64-1.35vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.24-0.07vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.14-1.95vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-2.29vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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2.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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2.64Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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5.86Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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7.8Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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7.23Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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7.43SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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9.29Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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9.65Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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11.93Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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11.05Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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11.71SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.4Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Seferian | 12.4% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 31.3% | 25.3% | 17.8% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 28.4% | 26.0% | 19.6% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 5.8% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Austin Haag | 2.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| William Sunkler | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 0.8% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 1.9% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 21.0% | 28.7% | 7.2% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 18.5% | 18.2% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 19.3% | 26.4% | 6.9% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 8.4% | 79.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.