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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.66vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.59+0.60vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.60+1.40vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+2.37vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.04+0.93vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.52+1.28vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.40+0.53vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.54vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.64+0.62vs Predicted
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10Columbia University-0.24+1.79vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.80-1.79vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.33-4.10vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.14-1.93vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-2.24vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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2.6Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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4.4Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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5.93Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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7.28Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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7.46SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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9.62Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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11.79Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.21Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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11.07Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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11.76SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.4Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 30.6% | 24.3% | 18.8% | 12.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 30.8% | 27.1% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 10.5% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 3.1% | 3.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Austin Haag | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 7.8% |
| William Sunkler | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 19.0% | 27.9% | 6.8% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 79.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.