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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.68vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+4.34vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.60+1.42vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.44+3.42vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.04+0.95vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.59-3.36vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.33+0.74vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.52-0.71vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.80+0.19vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.40-2.36vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.64-1.37vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.24-0.09vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.14-1.96vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-2.28vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-2.18-0.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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4.42Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.42SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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5.95Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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2.64Stanford University3.590.3%1st Place
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7.74Tufts University1.330.0%1st Place
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7.29Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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9.19Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Michigan1.400.0%1st Place
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9.63Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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11.91Columbia University-0.240.0%1st Place
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11.04Princeton University0.140.0%1st Place
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11.72SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.4Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 30.4% | 24.9% | 18.6% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 12.1% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Grace Howie | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 28.6% | 27.1% | 18.8% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Giacobbe | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| William Sunkler | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Austin Haag | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| Isabel De La Torre | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 20.7% | 29.0% | 6.9% |
| Daniel Sullivan | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 18.8% | 18.5% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 18.9% | 26.9% | 6.8% |
| Luke Haggerty | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 79.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.