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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.57vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.96+2.44vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+2.41vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.73+1.06vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.63-1.76vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.51+2.02vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.87-2.22vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan0.68-0.43vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.29-2.92vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-0.71+0.71vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.76-0.22vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-1.32-0.04vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.66-0.44vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-1.08-2.64vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-3.44-0.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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4.44Tufts University1.960.1%1st Place
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5.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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5.06Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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3.24Stanford University2.630.2%1st Place
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8.02Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.78Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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7.57University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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6.08SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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10.71Fairfield University-0.710.0%1st Place
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10.78Washington College-0.760.0%1st Place
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11.96Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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12.56SUNY Stony Brook-1.660.0%1st Place
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11.36Princeton University-1.080.0%1st Place
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14.45Amherst College-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 21.0% | 19.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Freda | 12.2% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 10.2% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 22.3% | 21.7% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 18.3% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Josep Costa | 11.6% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Neubauer | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 17.7% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Fanelli | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 17.7% | 19.6% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Houghton | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 21.0% | 15.1% | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 22.2% | 24.0% | 4.2% |
| Gaura Mudgal | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 20.1% | 33.7% | 10.8% |
| Elizabeth Bailey | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 20.0% | 18.8% | 15.3% | 2.7% |
| Amanda Temares | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 10.6% | 77.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.