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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.58vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.63+1.12vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.87+1.71vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.73+1.03vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+0.53vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.51+1.95vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.96-2.46vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.29-1.86vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.68-1.47vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-1.66+2.45vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-1.32+0.87vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.76-1.09vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University-0.71-2.22vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-1.08-2.62vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-3.44-0.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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3.12Stanford University2.630.3%1st Place
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4.71Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.03Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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7.95Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.54Tufts University1.960.1%1st Place
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6.14SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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12.45SUNY Stony Brook-1.660.0%1st Place
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11.87Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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10.91Washington College-0.760.0%1st Place
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10.78Fairfield University-0.710.0%1st Place
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11.38Princeton University-1.080.0%1st Place
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14.46Amherst College-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 21.3% | 17.6% | 15.5% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 25.7% | 22.4% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josep Costa | 10.5% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 17.1% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Austen Freda | 12.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Neubauer | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gaura Mudgal | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 17.6% | 33.5% | 9.2% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 21.6% | 21.3% | 6.9% |
| Andrew Houghton | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 14.1% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 15.5% | 11.0% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Fanelli | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 17.6% | 18.9% | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.3% |
| Elizabeth Bailey | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 21.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% |
| Amanda Temares | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 78.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.