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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.12vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+6.47vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+4.10vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.81+6.06vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.30-0.78vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.10+5.34vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+2.28vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.09+0.47vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.99+0.49vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.02-1.56vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.77-1.76vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+0.83vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.10-2.82vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.97-1.18vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.22-3.32vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.97-6.40vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.15-4.84vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.04-7.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12Yale University2.4214.6%1st Place
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8.47Georgetown University2.205.8%1st Place
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7.1Cornell University2.388.1%1st Place
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10.06College of Charleston1.813.9%1st Place
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4.22Stanford University3.3018.2%1st Place
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11.34Harvard University2.102.7%1st Place
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9.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.775.0%1st Place
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8.47Boston College2.095.8%1st Place
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9.49Brown University1.995.1%1st Place
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8.44Tulane University2.025.5%1st Place
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9.24University of Pennsylvania1.774.8%1st Place
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12.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.922.1%1st Place
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10.18Dartmouth College2.103.0%1st Place
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12.82Old Dominion University0.971.7%1st Place
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11.68Northeastern University1.222.2%1st Place
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9.6Roger Williams University1.975.0%1st Place
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12.16Tufts University1.152.3%1st Place
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10.48U. S. Naval Academy2.044.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 14.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Bridget Green | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Emma Tallman | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 18.2% | 17.5% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Katharine Doble | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Samantha Gardner | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Deana Fedulova | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 19.2% |
| Sarah Young | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 18.3% |
| Eva Ermlich | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.2% |
| Lucy Meagher | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Ella Hubbard | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 14.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.