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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.65vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.63+1.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+2.45vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.87+0.82vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.18+1.42vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.51+1.95vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.96-2.38vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.28-1.78vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.73-3.90vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-0.71+0.35vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.76-0.62vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-1.66-0.09vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-1.32-1.57vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-3.44-0.26vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-5.15-0.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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3.18Stanford University2.630.2%1st Place
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5.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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4.82Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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6.42SUNY Maritime College1.180.1%1st Place
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7.95Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.62Tufts University1.960.1%1st Place
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6.22University of Michigan1.280.1%1st Place
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5.1Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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10.35Fairfield University-0.710.0%1st Place
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10.38Washington College-0.760.0%1st Place
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11.91SUNY Stony Brook-1.660.0%1st Place
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11.43Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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13.74Amherst College-3.440.0%1st Place
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14.76Princeton University-5.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 20.2% | 17.6% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josep Costa | 9.6% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sesack | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 20.3% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Freda | 12.2% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Goulet | 5.7% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Fanelli | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 9.1% | 18.0% | 24.3% | 20.6% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Houghton | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 23.3% | 19.4% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Gaura Mudgal | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 22.6% | 37.0% | 10.8% | 0.5% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 10.2% | 16.6% | 27.7% | 26.8% | 5.9% | 0.4% |
| Amanda Temares | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 10.1% | 66.0% | 14.5% |
| Riccardo Talini Lapi | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 12.2% | 84.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.