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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.60vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.63+1.08vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.87+1.71vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.51+3.98vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.96-0.37vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.73-0.88vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.29-0.95vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan0.68-0.40vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.88+2.04vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-0.71+0.73vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-5.44vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-1.32+0.01vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.76-2.08vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-1.66-1.53vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-3.44-0.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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3.08Stanford University2.630.3%1st Place
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4.71Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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7.98Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.63Tufts University1.960.1%1st Place
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5.12Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.05SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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7.6University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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11.04Princeton University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.73Fairfield University-0.710.0%1st Place
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5.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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12.01Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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10.92Washington College-0.760.0%1st Place
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12.47SUNY Stony Brook-1.660.0%1st Place
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14.5Amherst College-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 20.4% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 27.6% | 19.6% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josep Costa | 10.2% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 17.5% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Austen Freda | 11.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Neubauer | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Malte Londschien | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 17.5% | 17.7% | 17.0% | 11.5% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Fanelli | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 19.6% | 16.4% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 1.4% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 21.8% | 26.0% | 4.7% |
| Andrew Houghton | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 17.5% | 10.7% | 1.5% |
| Gaura Mudgal | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 14.6% | 19.6% | 31.4% | 10.4% |
| Amanda Temares | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 9.0% | 79.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.