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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+4.43vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+1.55vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.63+0.16vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.96+0.54vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.51+2.98vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.87-1.23vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.73-1.95vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.29-1.85vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University-0.71+1.76vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.68-2.33vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.76-0.17vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.88-0.81vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.66-0.44vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-1.32-2.12vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-3.44-0.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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3.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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3.16Stanford University2.630.2%1st Place
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4.54Tufts University1.960.1%1st Place
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7.98Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.77Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.05Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.15SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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10.76Fairfield University-0.710.0%1st Place
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7.67University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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10.83Washington College-0.760.0%1st Place
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11.19Princeton University-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.56SUNY Stony Brook-1.660.0%1st Place
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11.88Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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14.48Amherst College-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Krzeszowski | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 18.8% | 21.1% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 24.1% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Freda | 12.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Josep Costa | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Fanelli | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 20.4% | 17.7% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.5% |
| Will Neubauer | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 17.6% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Houghton | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 18.3% | 17.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Malte Londschien | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 19.9% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 1.3% |
| Gaura Mudgal | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 18.3% | 35.7% | 10.5% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 21.9% | 22.5% | 4.8% |
| Amanda Temares | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 9.9% | 78.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.