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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.03+2.12vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.60+1.90vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.76-0.40vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.19-0.25vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.25-1.38vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island0.97-0.70vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-3.78vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.29-3.45vs Predicted
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11Yale University0.32-2.54vs Predicted
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12Yale University0.34-3.59vs Predicted
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13Amherst College-1.57-1.99vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-1.54-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.12Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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3.9Brown University2.600.2%1st Place
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3.6Tufts University2.760.2%1st Place
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4.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.190.1%1st Place
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4.62Tufts University2.250.1%1st Place
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7.3University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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5.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.1%1st Place
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6.55University of Rhode Island1.290.1%1st Place
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8.46Yale University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.41Yale University0.340.0%1st Place
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11.01Amherst College-1.570.0%1st Place
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11.04Amherst College-1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecilia Strombeck | 23.5% | 20.7% | 19.0% | 15.1% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Helen Lord | 15.7% | 16.5% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 19.1% | 17.4% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Simon | 8.6% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Denney | 11.4% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Young | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 18.3% | 18.8% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Chronert | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 17.7% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Nace Cohen | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 19.6% | 28.2% | 11.6% | 1.3% |
| Zachary Foreman | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 21.8% | 27.2% | 11.5% | 2.0% |
| Marco Catipovic | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 35.1% | 47.5% |
| Korey Charles | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 9.0% | 33.6% | 48.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.