Race 5A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 18.5% 16.9% 13.5% 12.4% 11.5% 9.9% 6.8% 4.6% 3.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam White 8.2% 11.5% 10.6% 9.9% 10.5% 9.8% 10.8% 10.5% 6.8% 6.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6%
Peter Hogan 14.4% 15.4% 12.6% 12.6% 11.5% 9.4% 8.7% 6.4% 5.0% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Charles Lomax 18.1% 15.9% 14.2% 14.0% 10.4% 8.6% 7.3% 5.9% 3.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Stephan VerHulst 4.8% 3.7% 5.3% 6.0% 5.9% 7.0% 7.0% 9.6% 9.3% 14.6% 13.8% 9.3% 3.7%
Juan Lejarraga 5.1% 4.6% 5.9% 6.3% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 10.6% 11.8% 11.5% 9.2% 8.5% 2.5%
William Huerth 5.0% 4.8% 6.0% 6.4% 6.7% 5.5% 8.1% 9.8% 11.9% 10.6% 13.8% 8.8% 2.6%
Dreugh Phillips 10.4% 10.6% 10.1% 9.9% 10.6% 12.2% 9.8% 10.3% 7.6% 5.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Halle Buescher 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 3.6% 4.4% 7.6% 17.0% 56.4%
Thomas Balk 7.2% 6.7% 9.0% 7.8% 8.9% 11.1% 10.2% 9.0% 9.7% 8.4% 6.3% 5.1% 0.6%
Skye Shepherd 2.2% 3.0% 3.6% 4.7% 6.0% 5.5% 6.0% 8.4% 10.2% 13.2% 16.7% 13.1% 7.4%
Tyler Rochon 1.0% 1.4% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 3.8% 5.4% 3.9% 6.7% 8.1% 13.1% 27.7% 23.5%
Sinead McManus 4.4% 4.8% 5.9% 7.3% 6.9% 7.8% 9.1% 9.3% 11.3% 12.5% 11.2% 7.4% 2.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.