← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.60+5.61vs Predicted
-
2Boston University2.97+7.02vs Predicted
-
3Brown University3.48+3.96vs Predicted
-
4Yale University4.24+0.29vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.53vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University2.95+2.89vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University3.14+1.12vs Predicted
-
8Eckerd College1.95+4.68vs Predicted
-
9Roger Williams University3.71-3.08vs Predicted
-
10University of Rhode Island3.09-1.42vs Predicted
-
11Northeastern University2.60-0.60vs Predicted
-
12Bowdoin College2.97-2.85vs Predicted
-
13University of Miami1.82+0.05vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University2.39-3.16vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-3.29vs Predicted
-
16California Poly Maritime Academy2.60-5.64vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.19-4.94vs Predicted
-
18Washington College1.26-3.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.61Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
9.02Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
-
6.96Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
4.29Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
-
7.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
8.89Fordham University2.950.0%1st Place
-
8.12Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
-
12.68Eckerd College1.950.0%1st Place
-
5.92Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
-
8.58University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
-
10.4Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
-
9.15Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
-
13.05University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
-
10.84Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
-
11.71Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
-
10.36California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.0%1st Place
-
12.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.190.0%1st Place
-
14.83Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sertl | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 19.0% | 17.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Shannon | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 13.1% |
| Martim Anderson | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Christian Filter | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Magno | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% |
| Frank Reeg | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Johannes McElvain | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Greta Farrell | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 8.7% |
| Paul Hart | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 17.2% | 35.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.